You never know how things are going to turn out but for now, let's just enjoy the reasonable likelihood that the War Nerd is right, and ISIS just aren't much cop at war.
After all, Kobane is not Stalingrad. It's a town defended by a lightly-armed, poorly trained militia - a very brave one, but a militia nonetheless... And the entire planet has just watched supposedly the most terrifying army of psycho-Jihadists around take a vicious beating off a bunch of smiling, thumb-upping girls. A resounding defeat, from some smiling girls in blokey uniforms and immodestly bare heads, no less!* Live, on worldwide TV!
The current state of the Battle of Kobane should tell us that far from being a bunch of battle-hardened badasses, at least a sizeable chunk of ISIS is actually not much more than a bunch of boastful, whooping evil idiots - very good at murdering unarmed civilians, and good at walking into towns vacated by people who don't want to fight them, but not very good at all at fighting people who actually shoot back.
And yet, I'm starting to hear mumbles about how really, all this shows that the joint airstrikes are working, and are proof of President Obama's bulging, manly testicles.
This is precisely the wrong message to be sending, so jaw-droppingly self-defeating and insane that it can only be coming from the very people making it.
ISIS is scared of girls is an incredibly useful propaganda coup. ISIS got robbed by the infidel's cowardly space-weapons is not useful, at all.
I've spent an embarrassing amount of time banging the drum for some basic points about the type of person who's attracted to joining up with jihadi armies and so on over the years. That is, that they're overwhelmingly gullible, credulous, small-minded, deeply prejudiced, wildly irrational, intolerant, no-dick weirdoes. A sad and hateful bunch of twats and geeks, good for little but woofing nonsense about how tough they are on YouTube, and stopping bullets with their sternums.
In the Middle East, they're very good at maybe three things - killing defenceless people; intimidating and harrassing other defenceless people, and eventually getting splattered over wide areas by high explosives to no useful purpose.
In the west, our committed terrorists are usually even more ludicrous, most often as thick as shitty jam and literally too stupid to make petrol catch fire.
Facing prison, your western jihadist typically turns from a demon warrior of God into a quivering, tear-streaked lump of boneless goo, hurling himself upon the mercy of the court with a series of weepy and increasingly hilarious excuses. The sheer pitch-black comedy of this should surely be obvious to all - men who were prepared to blow themselves to smithereens with crude bombs for their cause, now reduced to quivering wrecks by the prospect of a bit of jail time.
I realise that a long habit is hard to break and God knows, we Brits have spent the last fifteen years bigging up every mountain-dwelling goat botherer and laid-off Iraqi plumber into a bunch of eight-foot tall desert warriors, pissing gallons of raw terror over half of the planet.
Seriously, I understand that this stuff appeals to our leaders' and writers' desire to keep fighting lunatic wars, and of course to their ever-ballooning, vainglorious Churchillian pomposity. It's plain that the UK authorities believe that inflating a sad bunch of nasty, none-too-bright revanchist throwbacks into a mortal threat to civilisation is useful and necessary.
I'm just saying that, you know, it isn't. We should've spent the last decade shouting out the actual truth about a lot of dumb-as-rocks gap-year twats getting rubbed out and killing other people for worse than nothing. A chance missed, you'd think.
Still, there's always time to start making good. Altogether now!
(Fake ISIS propaganda music video; Dancing pyjama-clad men; Cue the disco beats)
Boom! Boom! Boom! Boom! Boom!
It's fun to be in the Mujahideen!
It's fun to be in the Mujahideen!
*And no, you shouldn't be thinking Oh, how patronising and sexist at this point. You should be laughing and enjoying this huge, hilarious propaganda triumph over people who really, really deserve it.